Saturday, August 13, 2005

New York State of Mind

YTD: +$15612.19

Apologies for another long pause. Work has a habit of getting in the way, and I play so many tables, 4-5, when I do play, that blogging is impossible.

Although the trend is slowly back upwards, it disguises the usual wide range of swings. So far this month I have been nearly two grand up, three grand down, now just a bit above break even. At times I have played gloriously, others very, very poorly. This is one of the intrinsic reasons I enjoy PLO play - the "rightness" of your play is often very transparent; who the hell could tell in that value bet/stop and go/semi-bluff turn raise of limit holdem. I did actually try NLHE for a little while, but I found it intrinsically dull.

A bad play: hilo in an unraised pot. FLop comes J55 and its checked around. Turn comes 9 and the big blind micro bets - $6 in a $20 pot and I raise with a399. He mini raises and I call :( He bets the pot on the river and I call and he shows 55. This kind of mini raise is often a big tell. But the mistake is raising the turn. He is almost certainly not semi bluffing here...he either has me murdered or I have him murdered. In these spots there is no shame in going limp, especially if you can't pass a raise :(

A good play: an unraised pot comes t34 rainbow. Loosey bets and I raise with 4467 and a good player cold calls, loosey passes. Turn comes a K putting out a 2 flush. I bet about 3/4 of the pot and good player raises the full pot. I pass.

Unusual play: I raise with AAQJ suited, bad player calls, loose, sometimes good or bad player reraises, I reraise again, bad player cold calls everything, other foe raises again (yes we all three had plenty of money!) and I pass. Yes pass. As it happens, $ and EV wise the pass was probably wrong, but thinking wise, it was very encouraging.

19 comments:

LA_Price said...

Hey Dave,

About the Aces pass I don't think I've ever done it. Not because I don't think it ever should be done but usually by the time I deduced that the other guy had Aces there was already too much in the pot and my odds were too good. I believe the saying goes "don't put in bad money after good". But I think the alternative "put in good money after bad" is also true.

Later,
LA_Price

Big Dave D said...

LA,

Nice to see u again. I'm fairly sure EV wise it was a bad play. In my defense, it was calling another pot sized bet "knowing" that the man in the middle would absolutely call. So I was very aware that I an my unaware fellow AA were creating a situation for ourselves. Passing was a good meta game factor though, although I doubt it compensated.

gl

dd

Gergery said...

I can't envision many scenarios where the 3rd guy has a hand that isn't donating heavily enough to offset any deficit you have vs. AA guy

Ignatious said...

damnit, keep posting.

Big Dave D said...

Ignatious,

Good to see you again...may be its time for The Godfather to mention me again :)

gl

dd

Big Dave D said...

Gerg,

First off, let me say that I am almost positive that this was a -EV play. That's why its in the unusual section. This isnt the Omaha8b forum on 2+2...not every thing I post will be me beating up on some "donk/moron". Sometimes I am the donk :)

However, its not the other AA I am worried about, its the third hand. If he has the hand he should have, a suited wrap, then he is favourite over the two of us. This is surprising to non-PLOers but is fairly well known. So maths speaking, the remaining money I put in is more than likely as a dog. Of course, maths speaking, the other money we have already put in more than compensates for it.

gl

dd

Wintermute said...

"This isnt the Omaha8b forum on 2+2...not every thing I post will be me beating up on some "donk/moron". Sometimes I am the donk :)"


Nice fold, donk. Are you allergic to money or something?

Anonymous said...

Dave, LA,

Are there any quality forums out there for PLO. 2+2 has died out as the good posters have gone. LA did post today, but his presence is rare.

Maybe we could start our own.

Good luck guys,
Rick
Autobet

Big Dave D said...

folks,

ive just ran the maths for my aces pass and its very close. Seriously. Because the other AA is able to reraise the full pot the situation is not as bad for folding as u might expect, depending on how much the drawing guy has left and how u factor in the two pots.

gl

dd

Big Dave D said...

Autobet,

Here.

gl

dd

Gergery said...

yah man, i know all that.

well, i didn't know you were a donk :)

And while he's often a fav w tha wrap, its not by much

Drizztdj said...

Do you ever play PLO8 by any chance?

Just curious since I've dumped NLHE and taken up PLO8/NLO8 as my "normal" game over the past 3 months.

Please keep posting!! :)

Big Dave D said...

Gerg,

At a very simple level, I'm getting 3 to 1 on my call...in reality it was a bit more complex than that. So I need 25% to break even on the coup. In this spot, I am often 30%. It is hard, but u can generate reasonable matchups where I am only 25%. So the edge is there, just nothing to right home about. And in the end, meta factors swayed me.

gl

dd

Big Dave D said...

driz,

nice to see u back.

PLO8b used to be my main game...there are several posts about it in the archives.

cheers

dd

Anonymous said...

Long time reader, first time poster . . .


There had been some talk on 2+2 recently about going in with a wrap with two other AAxx hands, so when I was in the sitution, I was able to make the correct play.

However, the read has to be dead on everytime and hindsight is 20-20, so the call might be marginal. I don't know.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1144689
pokenum -mc 500000 -o 9s 8s 5h 6c - 7h kd ah ad - as jh ac 6h
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards EV
9s 8s 6c 5h 0.433
Ad Kd Ah 7h 0.364
As Ac Jh 6h 0.204

I guess me and the AAk7 can high-five each other. I probably got lucky that their side cards were crap because my wrap (can I even call it a wrap?) isn't the strongest.


Cheers,
abscr

Big Dave D said...

abscr,

welcome aboard!

Your example is very timely. It shows that, contrary to common sense, you can be a significant underdog with AA. If this was my matchup, it would have been -ve EV for me in the hand I described. This was what I was worried about over the table.

As to your play, the only thing to look out for is when the other foe has KK. AA vs KK vs wrap is not good.

gl

Dave

Anonymous said...

Yeah. Like I said, the call could be very marginal because I was pretty much crossing my fingers hoping they were poor AAxx hands.

Anonymous said...

www.twodimes.net


pokenum -mc 500000 -o ah as qh jc - ad ac kc 3s - 5s 6s 7d 8d
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Jc Ah Qh 115560 23.11 314891 62.98 69549 13.91 0.301
3s Ac Kc Ad 81905 16.38 348546 69.71 69549 13.91 0.233
6s 5s 8d 7d 232986 46.60 267014 53.40 0 0.00 0.466

Not much worse than 33%, and with money in pot already, usually worth calling presumably?

Big Dave D said...

Anon,

As it happens, and a bit counter intuitivly for the Net, there isno dead money. All our stacks were that big. My foe raised the full pot again, and had some left. To complicate it, the other foe had less than this, but taking the simpler example of this reraise setting us all allin, means I need 25% equity to break even. At best, I am at 30%. At worst 20%. Normally it would be 28% ish. I felt the meta game issues werent worth gambling on such a small edge.

Incidently, one of the things that needs to be teased out of twodimes is that most of the time you win a little - split the other guy up, but actually the bulk of the time you lose. Depending on your state of mind, and the table composition, this ia a reasonable factor to consider.

gl

dd