Monday, December 20, 2004

Two Questions

YTD: +$40541.11


As I am on an extended break over the Christmas period, my "State of the Nation" post will probably be my last major post of the year. So I thought I would give you, Constant Reader, the chance to have a say as to what is in it. Tell me what stats and figures you are interested in and I will include them, no-holds-barred.

The second question is for the maths boffins out there? How do we calculate implied odds, but more importantly, how do we see if we have met them? This could be especially important in PLO where you not only need to hit your hand but have it stand up.

Let me give an example. I make a loose call in PLO and call a $24 bet getting 3 to 1 odds. But I really needed 6 to 1 odds. I now have a short fall of $74 I need to make up on the turn to break even on the call. Say I hit my hand on the turn, but it will only stand up to the river 60% of the time. Does this mean that I actually need to make $123.33 on the turn to justify the call on the flop? Any help appreciated.

12 comments:

chaos said...

1st question: you know my answer.

2nd question: I assume no action, or perfect play, on the river.

You are calling $24 to with for a 6-1 shot on the turn.
Miss the turn: game over, I believe.

So you have a 3/35 (1/7 * 3/5)chance of winning.

Break Even: 32/35 * -24 + 3/35 * Profit = 0

Profit* = 35/3 * 32/35 *-24 = 256

* Profit from that decision point

You have a short fall of 256 - 72 = 184.

Boy, I'm rusty this is painful!

Dave, it is late and this could be very wrong (I'm plus 2 beers too), but it looks to me as though you have only discounted the money you have made on the turn, not what was in the flop too. i.e. if he's is taking 40% of the 'money made' on the turn thrn he is also doing so on the flop (the $72).

If my assumptions and workings are correct then it should be straight forward to put some letters in.

Merry Christmas and don't forget the rake!

Andy_Ward said...

Hourly rates in different games would satisfy my curiosity !

BTW I saw most of that Reno WPT last night. You were right about Michael Kinney. Never mind all in with quads, what about all in with top pair no kicker after being check-raised ! There is hope for us all :-)

Andy.

Anonymous said...

I think it would be interesting to read about the different games you played during the year, and how you fared in each. I have not read all of your blog, but I understand you were up almost $60K at one point. I think this was after a crazy rush in 5/10 PLO. But, correct me if I am wrong, you then hit a bad streak and quit that game, and started playing *gasp* LIMIT HOLDEM?!

Nonetheless, congrats on a big winning year.

Roswell

PS I am "kirisim" on the 2+2 forum, thank you for responding to my post about a 2/4 PLO hand recently.

Milkybarkid said...

Away from stats and figures it would be interesting to know what your aims are for 2005. What games will you be concentrating on? Also what kind of profit will you be aiming for?

I had my first proper dabble on the $5/$10 Omaha on Stars last weekend. I played short handed (which i prefer) and the players were very passive. You should see the crazy pre flop raising that occurs at the same level on Betfair.

Big Dave D said...

Andy,

The reno WPT is one of the best simply because the play is so uniformly bad. I mean did that old guy have any clue what he was doing at all? Great fun for all the family.

gl

dd

Big Dave D said...

Roswell,

$63k to be precise :-( And yes you are right about what happened. More detail in the state of the nation post and keep on tuning in.

gl

Dave

Big Dave D said...

Milky,

The 5-10 game on Stars is more often very very loose. I think you caught a blip. There a huge number of players there who are raising more than say 15% of their hands played. You may have just missed them. Also I never can seem to see this 2.5/5 PLO game running on Betfair - Has it died?

gl

Dave

Anonymous said...

I wrote a nerdy post a while ago about this implied odds thing :

http://tinyurl.com/6yg82

The probability of having the hand hold up when you hit the draw still needs to be factored in.

Alix Martin, who's creativity tackling poker math has been thwarted by the existence of good online games, without Big Dave D in the lineup ;-)

Milkybarkid said...

Hi Dave

The 2.5/5 on Betfair has been a bit quiet over the past few weeks. I haven't really got involved too much as i have been busy. I think a few of the big fish must have blown all there money though. It was common for some of the bad players too consistently lose 2/3k per session. It is generally busy on Fri/Sat nights. If you like playing NL Holdem cash Betfair has to be the place... take a look at the 2/5 and 5/10 games there.

Hopefully it will resume soon and the players won't have made a new year's resolution to improve their play.

Big Dave D said...

Chaos,

Tx for the maths...you're right I havent factored in the 60% on the flop too. Good example for why normally implied odds are fairly crap for PLO.

Rake will be included :-)

cheers

Dave

Big Dave D said...

Alix,

Tx for the link! I thought I was the only oldtimer still around from the rgp days. Welcome aboard to the blog :)

gl

dd

chaos said...

Dave,

It is very deceptive, I actually started writing that your reasoning looked fine, but something didn't feel right. I suppose using Implied Odds can be quite dangerous as it can give you an excuse to do what you want to do, even though it isn't justified. It is an interesting example.

I am glad to see you've got a good honest following here, let's hope the flame throwers don't spoil your party.

gl for 2005