Monday, June 27, 2005

A Tale of Two Cities

YTD: +$21653.53

Well I'm not poker dead yet. I've dropped down a few limits and I'm playing mostly plo8b, where in theory I should be "safer". I'm still rusty at plo8b, having given it a break for quite some time. I thought I would do a quiz of two interesting hands that I misplayed over the table, but in the post match analysis managed to come up with some better plays.

BTW, I'm a big believer in doing your serious thinking *away* from the table. There's just not enough time over the table, especially if you are multi-ing. Model hands, have a think, and look for replicable situations in the future.

Here's the quiz:

Hand 1

Seat 2: Galka888 ( $647.52 )
Seat 3: Foe 2 ( $611.1 )
Seat 4: sparkyone ( $954.9 )
Seat 5: studpool ( $563.74 )
Seat 7: ProfitBiich ( $564.3 )
Seat 8: BigDaveD_UK ( $336.6 )
Seat 10: easytime2003 ( $189.3 )
Seat 1: Foe ( $394 )
Seat 9: SOON2BCHAMP ( $406 )
studpool posts small blind [$2].
ProfitBiich posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BigDaveD_UK [ Ah 3d Ad Th ]
BigDaveD_UK calls [$4].
>You have options at Table 36562 Table!.
easytime2003 folds.
Foe raises [$18].
Galka888 folds.
Foe 2 calls [$18].

Everyone else folds to you. Both these players are very tight, but that does not mean especially skilled. Action?

Hand 2

Table "Fort-de-France" (real money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: dauni ($466.00 in chips)
Seat 2: redsword ($737.00 in chips)
Seat 3: sorbus ($141.00 in chips)
Seat 4: fival ($1,397.50 in chips)
Seat 5: MRWINGMAN ($202.00 in chips)
Seat 6: iwtymyc ($442.00 in chips)
Seat 7: sc1mitar ($394.50 in chips)
Seat 8: OttoPost ($356.50 in chips)
Seat 9: WillRoberts ($93.00 in chips)
Seat 10: Foe ($1,563.25 in chips)
fival : Post Small Blind ($2)
MRWINGMAN: Post Big Blind ($4)
Dealt to sc1mitar [ 6c ]
Dealt to sc1mitar [ As ]
Dealt to sc1mitar [ 2c ]
Dealt to sc1mitar [ Js ]
iwtymyc : Call ($4)
sc1mitar: Call ($4)
OttoPost: Fold
WillRoberts: Fold
Foe: Call ($4)
dauni : Call ($4)
redsword: Call ($4)
sorbus : Fold
fival : Fold
*** FLOP *** : [ Kh 3s 5c ]
iwtymyc : Check
sc1mitar: Check
Foe: Bet ($26)
dauni : Call ($26)
redsword: Fold
iwtymyc : Fold
sc1mitar: Call ($26)
*** TURN *** : [ Kh 3s 5c ] [ Qs ]
sc1mitar: Check
Foe: Bet ($104)

The Foe here was loose to the extent of clinical insanity. In the short time I had played him he had played 90% of his hands, raising 30% of them. Probably the only hand he wasn't likely to have in this spot was A2, as he would have raised preflop with it.

Answers please on a postcard! Or the comments.


JoshuaMayes said...

Quiz 1:

If this is a game in which I can call the raise and then raise the size of the new pot, I could make it a max of $128 to go. That sized raise would probably lead to sorely -ev postflop play from out of position if called. I have a powerhouse, and I wouldn't mind getting all-in preflop against Foe, but I don't want to put myself in a tough spot on the flop. I think the best way to accomplish my goal is to put in a min-reraise. This reopens the betting to allow Foe to put in a big re-raise if he desires, but will make my postflop decision easier if both players just flat call.

JoshuaMayes said...

Quiz #2:

Push. You have a million outs to all or half the pot against a maniac. You have double-nut-gut, nut flush, and nut low draws. If there is any chance that Foe will fold the the best made high hand, pushing is the most +ev option. If you are called, you have plenty of ways to win the pot.

JS said...

In #1 I think I would personally reraise the max, but I also agree it puts you on in a tricky spot on the flop. I think you really want it heads up with a ds AA3. You are likely to make the best high hand and can catch a 2 to scoop or quarter them playing a bare A2.

In most scenarios you are going to have a big EV edge on them

Ad 3d Ah Th 0.471
4s 3s Ac 2c 0.250
As 2s Kc Qc 0.279

Mike said...

What is the super-loose villian's M.O. if he gets played back at. What is his M.O. on the river if people have flat called his pot bets to that point?

I'm trying to get at what I think you've already gotten at (judging by your comment).

Normally, a jam here gets you a ton of fold equity, and you still ton of outs if called. A jam also often forces an opposing A2 to fold, while calling andget you quartered.

I'm assuming the 3rd player folded, you didn't say that but you would have mentioned it if he didn't.

Here, you are quite sure your opponent doesn't have an A2, meaning that if you flat call for the river you have a ton of clean outs for the low which you wouldn't normally against a player showing strength like this. This raises the EV of calling a LOT. A jam may still be correct, since right now you have no low with ace high and you'd love your opponent to fold no matter who he is, but it's not as strong as normal.

The more your opponent tends to call a jam such as the one you are comtemplating, the more you should tend toward a call. The more your opponent tends to fire a 3rd barrel on the river, the more you should tend toward a call. If he calls significantly more than average and will most often pot the river if you call, I would flat call and the river will play itself. Against a normal opponent a jam is in order. Somewhere in the middle the options cross.

Vague enough for you?

Gergery said...

Hand 1: I jam to $74 for several reasons
1) The fact that two tight players are in makes it significantly more likely that the other 2 aces are split between them. Therefore, minraising is unlikely to get someone else to re-jam.
2) Against 2 tight players you could well pick up $40 for free if they fold.
3) You are very likely to have the best hand against a range of opponents with AA/A2 here, so I don’t like calling even tho you are out of position.
4) If both call, the pot is $222 with you having $260 behind so you are EV positive to jam most flops and hope – you are getting enough money in preflop that you are essentially playing showdown poker preflop – with the best hand.
5) I agree this is a tough type of hand to play, as AA’s value is basically the times your opponents miss so if you get played with you are in trouble, and out of position, its hard to tell whether your opponents missed.

Hand 2: I push.
1) You have far too much equity to fold having something like 13 outs to the nuts and another 17 outs to half the pot.
2) Raising could generate a fold which would be just fine since you are likely behind right now.
3) Hitting your hand could well slow him down or get a fold, since all your outs are fairly “visible”, and might not get paid off.
4) You have more equity than hands like 5567 or 4557 even with 2 spades.
5) I agree this seems a bit tricky at the table, but in post-analyis it seems pretty clear that you have more equity vs. his likely range, and might get him to fold several hands that that have odds to call, and thus should raise.


Anonymous said...


On hand 1 I jam like the other posters said and just hope the flop doesn't come like T98r. On hand 2 though I think a raise is very bad as you don't even have a pair. Thus even if you get exactly 1 caller with a good low draw and a brick comes on the river without bringing the low, then you might get nothing and the opponent could win with bottom pair. I would just call and hope to hit a flush that brought the low and quarter someone for low. This is a very promising hand for that board, but you have nothing yet so why escalate it by assuming that everyone will fold? And given the foe's aggro tendencies he could easily have 2 pair on that board and a bad low draw which he would fold for no amount of money.

I will admit however that I no longer play plo8 because I don't think the games are that good.


Patri Friedman said...

these seem pretty clear to me. hand 1 I jam. hand 2 jam if he may fold, call otherwise.


Grandgnu said...

I agree with the above poster. Your hands are riDONKulously powerful, I'd pot-bet both of them, try to maximize your profits.

In the first hand, you may win without even seeing a flop. And if you do see a flop, you're in great position for high or low or both to save your butt.

In the 2nd hand, you could very well be beat, you're just on a draw at the moment. But your draw is very powerful, with the possibility of a scoop of the pot. Jam it like a mofo!

Anonymous said...

On hand #2 I would agree with "jamming it like a mofo" if I knew all the other players would call since my equity would be so high. But when you get precisely 1 caller who can beat you with bottom pair when a brick comes the river, you'll wish you hadn't. If you don't leave people in with worse draws to pay off nut draws, then you have reduced it to having to make the best hand to win, without the benefits of getting paid off by worse hands that make up for the times you don't hit.


Big Dave D said...

Sorry folks, should have said that in hand 2, the other guy folds, so its now me headsup against the loosie.