Friday, March 04, 2005

The Case of Charles Dexter Ward

YTD: +$32106.74

Well, the madness has descended. On the outside these guys look like PLO players, or at least they fill up the seats on the screen. Inside, however, they are demonic creatures beyond sane comprehension. They are Party Poker players.

Party has gone PLO mad, with the limit increase causing a frenzy. Last week, there was barely a game of 5-10 PLO on Stars a day. Now there are 4-6 around the clock. The lower limits are similarly pumping.

I wish I could report I am doing well, but I'm not. Variance is going to be huge. A pair with a bad flush draw is enough to call off your money through to the river, may all that see it bless it. Some are no doubt winning big. Some are doing their bollocks. One guy, probably the best PLO8b player on the net, lost the best part of 20k in 48 hours. These guys were not laying down hands :(

Personally I'm treading water, but I'm looking forward to much, much more.

YOG-SOTHOTH!

15 comments:

chaos said...

Well I decided to plough in too and have a go. I felt helpless. Yes, it's one of those falsely modest 'didn't know what I was doing' stories, 'but managed to win anyway' .

I have messed with Omaha in the odd live cash game and in FPP's, but I really didn't have too much of a clue. I bought in for $400 and won $800, was winning 1200, but suffered a toughish beat.

Generally, I caught two pair a couple of times and took off. But really I didn't have too much of a clue what hamd to start with, they all looked so tempting! Still acknowledging my temptation forced me to turn down a few.

I want to know if in general against a general opponent would you fold this hand? It seemed an obvious fold, but too obvious?

6 see the flop: I have a hand with 56 in it.

Flop 478, 2 diamonds - no flush draw for me.

Check the flop. Late bets, early calls and I raise the pot by around $70.

This may have been a mistake: wait til the turn and keep the pot small if a superior str8 comes?

Anyway, bettor folds and the early caller calls the raise. Flush comes on the turn. He bets $70 into $220 and I pass. Is this pass a no-brainer against average Joe?

Would you consider getting cute to play for the paired board on the river?

Or is that an 'obvious' play?

It certainly is fun to have that helpless feeling again, but I had fun.

Big Dave D said...

Chaos,

Youre description of your hand doesnt sound too promising :(

The value of the nuts in a multiway pot is what improvers you have,as you are dry here, its ok to wait until the turn to pump it. It then becomes an obvious fold on the turn.

Yes I would fold in your case and I wouldnt call for the super-esoteric bluff opportunity..the chances are he wont pass anyway.

In general, in PLO, I prefer to do my big gambling in big pots, not try and manufacture big pots by big gambling, if you understand my meaning :)

gl

dd

Aksu said...

BDD: "I prefer to do my big gambling in big pots, not try and manufacture big pots by big gambling"

That is a very good point. And big difference for limit holdem, where small pots are free and valuable for aggros to take.

aksu

chaos said...

Thanks for the very useful comments Dave. Your comment re needing nuts + on the flop to make the move was on the money.

I'm a little surprised though by the probable call if the board pairs on the river, but if that's the nature of the game then so be it.

Thinking about it, I'm a little better than 3-1 to have the play on the river and am getting around 4-1 pot odds. There is probably some equity in the player betting the flush on the river with a pair on the board, pushing the odds up a little and perhaps a small chance of winning with the str8 to a check on the river. Even so one would probably need 90% chance of foe passing to a river bet for the play to be right (given I lose heavy when he looks me up)- which isn't enough given your belief that oppo will probably call.

I'm a little surprised by the size of the bet on the turn though - it doesn't smack of the nuts, I would have thought oppo would more likely take me for a set than a str8 and so he is making it cheap for me to hit the boat at $70. So maybe there was a play.

That said, I really don't have a feel for the game enough to know whether I have represented the set or str8 on the flop or even what the mix is.

chaos

Big Dave D said...

Aksu,

As I wrote it I realised I had actually said something profound, not my usual shite :-) Hopefully no one will notice it!

Didnt see u in the $1mill Party comp...I lasted until after the 1st break, by 1 hand. Tg for sats.

gl

dd

Big Dave D said...

Chaos,

I'll be honest and admit I didnt see the pot size thing :-( In general, calling to bluff plays are fairly pointless online. The play is just that bad. Rememeber also that he could actually make a house himself!

As an example of how bad it is...I've clocked a guy, over several hundred hands, approaching a 100% see the flop rate.

As an other example, I had a small pot, where on the turn the second nut flush lumped in his entire 400 stack against my nuts. To make it worse, it was hilo and he had no low draw either.

As a final example,again hilo, I had the top set in a small headsup pot. A low came with a very remote chance of a str8. He bet the pot, 30 bucks or so and I passed.

Speak softly and carry a big stick. I think that may be a title for a future post :)

gl

dd

chaos said...

'I'll be honest and admit I didnt see the pot size thing :-('

So what are you saying, you don't pay much attention to anything I write on Omaha?

Harsh but fair.

Anonymous said...

Dave, how do you feel about the profitability on the high-limit PartyPoker PLO vs PLO8? They are both just off the charts, but I've been tending toward the PLO8.

My reasoning is that

a) I'm better at PLO8 (duh)
b) the variance monster would seem to be less fearsome at PLO8. I'm massively increasing the stakes I play non-holdem games to take advantage of this newfound gold mine, and PLO8 lends itself more to semi-nut-peddling while I get my legs under me

Obviously neither of these reasons apply to you, but I was hoping to get your general thoughts.

Mike

SimonG. said...

1st March 27k
4th March 32k

"I wish i could say I am doing well but I'm not"

Hmmm.

Anonymous said...

From Peter B

I made my own hesitant foray into PLO today, on UB. The full gaudy tale can be read on my new (ish) blog, which I am trying to keep secret from the hoi polloi It's a livejournal blog as in www_dot_livejournal_dot_com Then you put in /users/_pjb_.

Sorry about splitting it up like that, but I don't want web spiders to grab it.


Overall I felt helpless in the manner that Chaos did, alkthough the stakes were somewhat lower.

Pete

Big Dave D said...

Mike,

Thanks for the post. Yes in general I would agree with your reasoning. If you are prepared to peddle the nuts then PLO8b is a much better game. Howver just be aware that some of the Party PLO8b is playing very very aggressive and sometimes you will have to pass up quite strong hands on the turn, simply because these guys are banging every street. Personally a lack of patience and disliking of being "slapped around" has caused my game to deteriorate, but if you're prepared to wait it out then it will be much lower variance than PLO equivalents.

gl

dd

Big Dave D said...

Pete,

I liked the way you played your hand, although I would probably play it just as fast without the str8 backup. 2 points tho...the microlimits play v v v dumb, as I've said b4, and also UB had a reputation of being very tight. True or false I dont know, but I wouldnt see any reason to play there over Party now.

gl

Dave

Big Dave D said...

SimonG,

Most of that profit came from Stars and Paradise. And although it may sound slightly disingenious, I don't pay a huge amount of attention to the YTD, except cut'n'pasting them here. Strange but true.

gl

dd

Anonymous said...

If you are prepared to peddle the nuts then PLO8b is a much better game.What does "peddle the nuts" mean?

Walstib

Big Dave D said...

Hi Walstib

Sorry for the delay. "Peddle the nuts" means to only play the very best hands - "the nuts" is a slang term for the best possible hand. I don't think its a particular UK phrase. So in plo8b you would be playing nut lows, with good highs, normally flushes. It makes $ but destroys the soul.

gl

dd