YTD: crap, 16k ish, doing this from a pda
Well we got a fair response to the plo8b quiz, both here and on 2+2. Here's my views on the hands, which for a change I feel quite certain-ish on.
Hand 1
The real clue here was that the foes were very tight, but not especially skilled. What kind of hands could foe1 have in such a case? Clearly either an AA hand, or an A23 hand, most likely suited. In the first case he will most likely reraise, which is great for my hand, but in the second he will just call, which is likely to encourage foe2 to call also.
This second case, which is far the most likely, puts me in the uncomfortable position of having turned my hand faceup, yet still having plenty of money left to bet out of position. Unless a 2 comes, there are very few safe flops against two tight foes.
So calling has some merit, but again I am looking for a dream flop, and I miss out on the chance of potentially getting allin against a worse AA.
This leads me to an unusual correct answer of mini raising. This will probably provoke foe1 into reraising again if he has aces, but leaves me much less pot committed than if I make a potsize raise.
Hand 2
We had the full gamut of answers for this one, from raising allin, calling to passing on the flop.
The interesting thing here is the maths of the situation if you go allin. Against the range of hands where he is currently in front, from a pair to trips, you are no worse than a 6 to 4 dog and are sometimes a small favourite. More interestingly, you are a massive favourite against all his drawing hands, often as much as 9 to 1. And its not unreasonable to put him on such a hand here. Your nut no pair may win. Moreover, how will you you play the river if you miss...just pass? Especially if the board pairs, you may be passing the winning hand. Put all these together, plus some passing equity, admittedly slight, and pushing on the turn is clearly right.
14 comments:
Good stuff Dave.
What Happened?
I had been checking this blog periodically for months now. When I started reading your blog I was wishing I could make that kind of cash. You were up about 20 thousand dollars in one month. You continued to gain cash and I continued to falsely believe in your adept omaha skills. I still remember that hand you called around 280$ on the river with just a pair of 3s and cracked a busted draw, it was a truly great call. Then you began to post these hands I couldn’t understand. That 1k call with the gut shot was hideously misplayed on all streets, and most of the hands after that were much the same. In conjunction with your play, your bankroll began to deteriorate, and today for the first time, this college student’s YTD has surpassed yours. Well by surpassed, I really mean yours has deteriorated below mine. I may not be ahead much, but at this rate your going to be in debt 100k by the end of the year. If you are even in Pennsylvania let me know, ill invite you to a home game with friends, it’s a 20$ buy-in, but you can buy in 10 in you have to. I think someone needed to tell you that your time has come, and you may want to look at the classifieds in tomorrow’s paper.
P.S. You may want to change the site to internetpokerplayer, because clearly “pro” no longer applies. Just a though.
Former Fan
Cool. My first mild hate-flame. Your really have tickled me pink former fan. If you have followed this blog long enough to remember that call, then you should have followed it closely enough to realise I am not a pro, rather a working joe, and never claimed to be anything other. The URL was just a cool one.
I am not Danny N. I am not trolling myself for fame or fortune or recognition "on the circuit". I don't have a computer game I am about to launch, although I may do some rakeback soon.
If you are disappointed with my results, well guess the fuck what? So am I. Of the 40k dip at least 15k of it was bad play, which I have never disguised or pretended it wasn't.
The purpose of the blog is to give a warts-and-all view of playing as an amateur player. The YTD thing makes it harder, but you know, if I have a losing year, so what? That's poker. People win and people lose.
Stick around and see what happens.
gl
Dave
So Dave, you have a bit of a losing streak and as a result you get some kid gloating at your apparent demise. Of course he’s trying to couch it in that pseudo-intellectual phraseology that many students think makes them sound clever and worldly.
Anyway, I’m not here to be negative. I’ve been reading your blog for a long time and I have learned more about PLO from it than from any other source. I’m not ass-licking but it’s a great site, and well worth the money !
I admire your honesty in displaying your YTD, especially in the light of recent results. To me, letting all the world see how much you’ve been losing recently just means that you leave your ego outside of the poker table, which is a quality which will only profit you in the long run. So, keep posting (especially PLO !)
Kevin
Another rub-down? Who'd have thought it? Like buses, huh?
I'm not sure quite what grates folk. Whether it's irritation at the honesty and integrity highlighted by persisting through blips, or the perceived arrogance in displaying the highs, who know(s)?
I can only say that I would/have posted my results for one purpose - as a driver to improve. I'm sure that is a big reason for Dave's openess. It's a brave thing to do, as I'm sure all of us who play poker will recognise. It can effect you in two ways, or for the most of us, a mixture of two ways -make you jealous or inspire you.
I'm not capable of defending Dave's omaha-insight from a technical perspective - but I would back my judgement up with hard earned cash, because there are many soft aspects to his game that are clearly good. The blog is an honest one, if people think he talks bollocks then they, generally, say so - irrespective of the rate of change of his YTD.
chaos
aaahhh, 4/6 Miros?
Lord Miros does not post anonymously. Ever.
Tx for the kind words, Chaos, Kevin et al.
The truth is, I dont really have a lot of ego invested in the YTD at all. In started off as a gimic and has kind of stuck. I dont get hung up on it. In fact sometimes I havent even noticed how much I have been winning...its just been a number.
I have been a winning player for 9 years now. A few months here and there isn't going to make me question that. Neither are a few rubdowns which are honsetly water off a duck's back.
And I didnt think it was Miros either.
gl
dd
judging by the third party thing going on in that post, maybe Lord Miros doesn't know when he is posting
hey dave!
what happened to vegas and that satellite you won on absolute poker?
I was sitting at the Rio today playing the 1-2 no limit game when I heard a rather familiar name being called over to the 5-5 PLO Game. This wouldnt happen to be our Friendly Local Big Dave D is it?
I think I heard Big Dave, and then BDD being called over. If so, I'll still be around tomorrow. Im the fat guy with the long pony tail that isn't Todd Brunson. I am waiting to get a stack big enough playing 1-2 to go play the 55, but things are beginning to look bleak.
If that was you, how is that game?
Ricky g
I've had this to a slight extent on Gutshot. If you tell it like it is, highs and lows, good plays and bad plays, a lot of people assume that you must be a much worse player than all those bloggers who never lose, except to the odd bad beat.
They'll be alright. All of them.
Andy.
Just to make clear, Im not in Vegas.
I sold my ticket to the Omaha event well b4 the current slump so it was never on the cards. Why did I sell it? New job, wife pressure etc etc.
cheers
Dave
I think its great that you're being honest about the variance and tilt swings. I'm slowly getting into PLO8 from Limit O8 and reading your posts really help.
Thanks and good luck to you in the future :)
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