Monday, September 06, 2004

Down at the End of Lonely Street

YTD: +$57896.08

"I had trips and he hit quads on the river, must be fixed!"

This is a common cry and one that shows how little the vast bulk of poker players actually know about the mathematical underpinnings of the game they play. Longshots are common. Miracles seem to happen everyday. In PLO, longshots very rarely are very long, as the 6 card combinations make nearly anything seem possible. But what about $1600 lost in a 515 to 1 shot?

I think that qualifies as a longshot.

This was actually a parlay. In about the space of an hour I lost to runner runner straights when holding trips, or in one case the nut flush to runner runner full. The latter one was almost amusing, as I flopped the nut straight and the nut flush draw and wondered to myself, "How am I gonna get paid on this one?". I bet it, hit the flush on the turn and bet it again. My opponent had called on the flop with top pair, Q kicker and no draw.

Losing all three pots was a parlay of 515 to 1.

I didn't smash up the computer.

I didn't shake my fist at the "cashout curse".

I did moan and whine a bit.

But I basically accepted that as a loose player my perceived action will make these hands happen more often and I should welcome it. Because calling for runner runner is one of the worst spots a PLO player can themselves into.

Then I knuckled down and still ground out a winning session.

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